Market's view on Shell

Published on April 2024

  • There is a discussion on the financial strategies of a company, highlighting that the company has carried out significant share buybacks, increasing from 24 1/2 to 29 in the quarter, which has contributed to a momentum that could lead to a rerating of the company’s stock.
  • Concerns are raised about political impacts on the energy sector, with potential policy changes in the US that could affect global decarbonisation efforts and the financial viability of fossil fuel use, alongside commentary on the inconsistency of global CO2 reduction targets given increasing fossil fuel usage by major economies like the USA, China, and India.
  • A warning is issued by the CEO of Stellantis about the potential withdrawal from the UK market due to the net zero crackdown on combustion engines, suggesting that this could force car manufacturers to sell at a loss if the current regulations are not amended.
  • Shell and Total are in discussions about acquiring stakes in ADNOC’s new LNG project, indicating ongoing investment interests in natural gas.
  • An analysis suggests that the switch to green power could significantly increase annual household bills in the UK, impacting especially the poorest households.
  • Critiques are voiced about oil companies’ practices of buying back shares when prices are high, which is seen as providing poor value to shareholders and enriching brokers through fees.
  • Skepticism is expressed about the effectiveness of Shell’s strategy to relocate to the US, prompted by negative public and political responses in the UK to company profits and shareholder dividends.
  • A decline in European passenger car sales is noted, with a significant drop in demand for electric vehicles, particularly affecting major car manufacturers.
  • A strategy of share buybacks is debated, with opinions that it should be executed based on the undervaluation of shares rather than as a routine capital return method, suggesting that this often destroys company value.
  • The financial implications of share buybacks for dividend payouts and future debt reduction are discussed, hinting at potential long-term benefits for the share price and dividend size.
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