Market's view on Sabre Insur

Published on April 2024


- A final dividend of UK£0.081 has been announced with an ex-date of 25th April 2024 and a payment date of 5th June 2024. The dividend yield stands at 5.0%, aligning with the industry average. This dividend is supported by a 70% earnings payout ratio and a 54% cash payout ratio. However, there has been a decrease in dividend payments over the past 66 years, showcasing a lack of growth and stability. Despite this, EPS is expected to grow by 77% over the next three years, which should support the dividend and provide adequate earnings cover.
- RBC Capital Markets has increased its target price for Sabre Insurance from 200p to 220p, maintaining an 'outperform' rating following favourable annual results and the company's efficient volume management.
- Full year 2023 earnings and revenue have exceeded analyst expectations, with EPS of UK£0.073 (up from UK£0.041 in FY 2022) and revenue of UK£196.8m (up 23% from FY 2022). The profit margin has improved to 9.2%, driven by increased revenue. Earnings per share surpassed analyst expectations by 13%, with a forecast for revenue growth of 9.7% p.a. over the next three years.
- The price target for the company has been raised by 7.2% to UK£1.81, based on an average from eight analysts. This new target is 14% above the last closing price, and the stock has risen by 50% over the past year. The company is expected to post an EPS of UK£0.064 for the next year.
- Discussions highlighted that Aviva remains the largest shareholder of the company, despite reducing its stake from 9.98% to 8.85%. This has led to speculation and concern among investors.
- There were discourses on the fluctuating trading volumes and share price movements, with significant trading of 2 million shares noted on one day, suggesting potential insider knowledge.
- Several factors influencing the insurance sector, such as claims related to second-hand car values and repair costs, have been discussed. These have been identified as vital for assessing the future financial health of insurance companies.
- A detailed analysis of Sabre's performance was presented, noting a disapproval of the current management's strategies and the use of new accounting practices to potentially overstate the company's financial health. The share price is argued to be unjustifiably high, given the company's current performance metrics and market position.
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