FoggyIsle.XYZ | Market's view on Niox Group

Astra dissolved their partnership with Circassia, retaining commercial rights for Tudorza and Duklar inhalers for COPD with a $150 million debt compensation and kept an 18% stake in Circassia, now Niox. Niox has developed a highly profitable asthma diagnostic device and holds a $600 million tax credit from the Circassia deal, making them a potentially attractive acquisition target, despite only tapping 5% of the global market.
There is speculation about Astra’s involvement with Niox from a past deal under previous management, which is now considered insignificant to Astra’s current operations.
There are observations of large, late-reported purchases and a high number of small share trades affecting Niox’s stock price, though no recent news confirms these activities.
Sanofi’s use of FeNo in a Phase 3 trial of its COPD drug, Dupilumab, shows potential for expanding Niox’s market reach.
Discussions about whether AstraZeneca should acquire Niox to determine the growth potential, as Niox could be valuable for diagnosing other lung issues.
A recent significant purchase suggests building investor interest in Niox.
A dividend announcement by Niox suggests financial stability, with potential for an additional special dividend.
Niox’s stock has shown resilience despite the UK being the worst-performing market, with expectations of a takeover by AstraZeneca due to their 16% stake.
Niox is seen as an ideal complement for diagnosing severe asthma and managing treatment levels, with FeNo being the gold standard for measuring airway inflammation.
A trading statement is anticipated soon, which could influence the stock’s performance.
It’s noted that Niox would need a partner to retail their home kit, with a significant cash reserve and a $600 million tax credit enhancing their financial flexibility.
Observations indicate that Niox’s stock price tends to fall in periods of no news but rises on positive updates, suggesting a pattern that might continue.