Market's view on Mattioli Woods

Published on April 2024

  • There are concerns that the takeover valuation of MTW is considered low, especially given the recent depressed share price.
  • MTW’s share price had a notable drop in September 2023 but recovered within a month, with analysts projecting a potential increase to 750/800 from the current 580.
  • A comprehensive analysis of H1-24 shows an 8% year-on-year increase in revenue, with notable growth driven by the core pensions business. The company maintains a strong net cash position, which includes dividends and payments related to acquisitions.
  • The acquisition of Doherty is seen as strategically beneficial, adding significant assets under advice and a large number of private clients.
  • There is discussion about the differences between underlying and statutory profit, questioning the normalcy of including contingent remuneration and software costs in adjusted EBITDA.
  • The FY results presentation highlighted growth in assets under management and revenue, with a focus on organic growth initiatives and strategic planning.
  • Trading updates indicate that MTW’s forward Price/Earnings ratio is below the sector median, suggesting undervaluation and potential for re-rating.
  • The acquisition of a new company is considered expensive from a historical perspective, but it is accretive to earnings and supported by a strong balance sheet.
  • There is speculation about the potential for MTW to receive a takeover bid due to ongoing sector consolidation.
  • There’s a general sentiment that MTW’s defensive characteristics and high percentage of recurring revenues make it an attractive investment, despite sector challenges.
  • Observations were made about significant market movements and trading volumes, suggesting potential bottoming or a forthcoming bounce in MTW’s stock price.
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