Market's view on Marlowe

Published on April 2024

  • Cavendish released a positive research note with a 12-month price target of 775p for the company, speculating a rerating post-debt resolution after a deal completion.
  • Speculations persist if previously interested parties would reconsider following increased multiples in related transactions.
  • Discussion surrounds the potential sale of the TIC division post divestment, highlighting a possible transaction within a year.
  • Marlowe advocated a strategic three-year plan aiming to significantly increase group revenues and adjusted EBITDA by 2024.
  • Instead of divesting the TIC division, Marlowe agreed to sell certain Governance, Risk & Compliance software and services assets to Inflexion Private Equity for £430m.
  • The sale excludes Compliance Services businesses in OH and TIC, which represent approximately 80% of Marlowe’s FY23 revenues.
  • Post-deal, Marlowe plans to retire its debt facility and return around £150m to shareholders.
  • Following the asset sale announcement, Marlowe’s share price experienced significant trading, peaking at 600p with notable volume before stabilising.
  • Discussions include the potential return of capital to shareholders funded by the sale, and speculation about additional divestitures of remaining business segments.
  • Financial analysis post-divestment reveals Marlowe retaining significant revenue and EBITDA, suggesting continued good value despite selling a major part of the business.
  • Queries were raised regarding tax implications on the net proceeds from the asset sale.
  • Marlowe’s CEO plans to transition with the divested business, prompting discussions on future leadership and strategic directions post-deal.
  • Surprisingly, Marlowe opted to sell GRC assets instead of the anticipated TIC segment, indicating strategic shifts in focus.
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