Market's view on Grainger plc

Published on April 2024

  • There is a discussion on Grainger’s current debt of 1.4bn at 3.3%, which is set to reset in 2028/29, but the benefit of a few years at 8.4% rental growth is acknowledged.
  • Stock watchers are optimistic about Grainger’s performance due to a strong 8.4% like-for-like rental growth and potential from chronic housebuilding shortages.
  • Positive remarks about Grainger’s recent trading statement indicate general approval of company’s performance.
  • There’s a focus on the implications of Grainger becoming a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), particularly how this will require them to distribute over 90% of rental profits, significantly higher than the current rate.
  • Enquiries are being made about the expected dividend payout after Grainger transitions to REIT status.
  • A broker upgrade from Berenberg has initiated coverage of Grainger with a ‘buy’ rating and a price target of 305 pence.
  • Mention of a small acquisition by Grainger, though details are minimal.
  • Stock watchers note that despite growth in housing stock, dividend growth is slow and not significantly pushing up Net Asset Value (NAV).
  • Positive feedback on Grainger’s financial results, highlighting great cashflows and a 9.2% increase in like-for-like new lets, reflecting strong pricing power.
  • News of a joint venture with Network Rail and good company direction is shared.
  • Grainger has sold a 15.3-acre site in Waterlooville, Hampshire to Bargate Homes and VIVID for a development of up to 200 homes as part of the Berewood Garden Village masterplan.
  • There’s excitement about high occupancy and early lettings in new developments, such as the one in Derby being significantly pre-let.
  • Stock watchers discuss the broader real estate market dynamics, noting that properties’ values are currently supported, reducing the risk of valuation decline in upcoming results.
  • Observations made on operational sites, such as one in Sheffield, show modern amenities and full occupancy, indicating a solid business model from an operational perspective.
  • There’s a general consensus that the expected yield for Grainger will increase post its conversion to a REIT.
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