Market's view on Croda International

Published on April 2024

  • Q1 sales figures for Croda did not meet market expectations, leading to disappointment.
  • Despite overall market downturns, Croda’s share price increased, which was unexpected given the circumstances.
  • There are evaluations suggesting Croda’s fair value is between £4.4bn and £5.6bn, indicating a potential wait-and-see approach before investing.
  • Croda’s stock price recovery is noted, with a current resistance at £50, but it remains far from its peak at £100 in 2021.
  • The company faces a long road to recovery with a reduced financial forecast for FY24 and ongoing operational challenges including inventory overhang and slower growth in large-cap customers.
  • There is a reference to a positive market response influenced by a broker’s report from Jefferies.
  • Stock has potentially hit its lowest point, signalling a long recovery phase.
  • The director’s purchase might be linked to anticipated positive results from a specific product test.
  • Croda continues to cover the chemical sector, maintaining profitability despite declining orders due to global market conditions.
  • The stock has experienced a significant decline of 40% since the start of 2022.
  • Croda issued a profit warning due to clients reducing stockpiles, marking the second profit outlook reduction in recent months.
  • Concerns are raised about something fundamentally wrong with the company as the stock continues to decline.
  • Director’s sales of shares have negatively impacted perceptions of company stability.
  • Stock price has halved since mid-2021, raising questions about whether it is advisable to hold or sell the shares.
  • Croda’s involvement in manufacturing vaccine lipids is noted, which is considered a growth market despite some contamination issues.
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