Market's view on Anglo American

Published on April 2024

  • BHP has shown interest in acquiring Anglo-American, which has sparked talks that this could possibly attract other buyers, such as India’s Vedanta or a Chinese miner. There are suggestions that Glencore, which was previously thwarted in a bid for Teck Resources, may also be watching the situation closely.

  • There are concerns that the current share price of over £30, which was the case as recently as the previous year, should be more enticing to provoke a sale.

  • Under UK takeover law, BHP has until May 22 to either declare a firm intention to make an offer or withdraw. It is expected that the company will soon come back with a better proposal to win over Anglo’s board and management. Analysts at Jefferies and Co. predict that the per-share value for the entire company needs to be at least £28 for Anglo to take it seriously and enter negotiations.

  • Activist Elliott is reported to have built a $1 billion stake in Anglo American.

  • Opinions vary among stock watchers, with some believing that the business will not be sold and is better off as it is, while others think the offer is too low, especially as copper prices hit a record high on the LME. There is a growing consensus that the AAL board would only consider an offer in the range of £28-30.

  • Mike Henry, a strong character, is eager to solidify BHP’s position as the world’s No.1 copper producer and is unlikely to back down easily.

  • Some stock watchers have suggested that now might be a good time to top up, while others disagree, considering BHP might be better off investing in GLEN.

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